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Re: careless calculus and whispers
Posted: Wed Aug 09, 2006 7:17 pm
by The TJT
Zhorik wrote:If the winners bracket player goes for a more conservative time allocation of 50-50 or 60-40, there is a good chance that the losers bracket player will be doing something similar, in which case the chance for the losers bracket player isn't that far from 25% as well.
The beauty of the winners' bracket player's tactic is exactly opposite, keep opponent guessing and therefore gain the advantage I pointed out in my analysis.
TJT wrote:
(*)This obviously didn't count other variables that can skew the odds greatly, such as: If one just plays more, has more talent or having luck with game selection in the final.
Zhorik wrote:
I agree that these variables will have a HUGE impact on the true probabilities and largely make this sort of mathematical analysis moot.
Yes, but I had to prove that odds for winning the final are very different between "right"/"wrong" options for final, since you might have mislead someone to believe the odds are equal
One shouldn't count on these variables evening out the odds: These excluded variables can work for winners' bracketeer as well...
I guess I've said all I have to say about final system now, thanks for listening.
Never tell me the odds! -Han Solo
Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 5:51 am
by destructor
TRB_MetroidTeam wrote:Hmmm... if without changes in the method... I suggest the final round (with 2 simultaneous games) would be 2 weeks, instead of 10 days!
2 weeks is too long for 2 games. 10 days is OK.
Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:23 pm
by TRB_MetroidTeam
destructor wrote:TRB_MetroidTeam wrote:Hmmm... if without changes in the method... I suggest the final round (with 2 simultaneous games) would be 2 weeks, instead of 10 days!
2 weeks is too long for 2 games. 10 days is OK.
Sample: I play mainly at weekends. If these 10 days have 2 weekends it is ok. If not... in my situation, I will have one weekend to play 2 games... hmm... one at Saturday and other at Sunday. One day each game? Ouch!
And if the duration is a bit more... we will be allowed to watch "high-quality" INPs
And is it that we want.
Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:58 pm
by destructor
If you have 2 days only to play in final then you have no chance with me
And OK, if you have only one weekend then maybe 7 days for 2 games will be good? 14 is too long.
Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 5:26 pm
by TRB_MetroidTeam
destructor wrote:If you have 2 days only to play in final then you have no chance with me
Well... if I came from the Winner's Bracket and you from the Loser's, in this situation I will have chance
Hmmm... at least I am not "preparing" my skills since 1 year ago or more, to this tourney
Let's see how long I will survive...
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:20 am
by BBH
Small addition to the rules - due to reported problems with WolfMAME 0.106 on the Windows '98 platform, we will be allowing the choice of either 0.106 or 0.101 throughout the tournament.
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:31 am
by destructor
MARP is down, then probably we must wait with tournament start.
Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:18 am
by RAX
About the rules of the final rounds: I think there is an error when you say that winner of Winner's Bracker waits a round to know who will be his opponent from Loser's bracket. He will wait two rounds.
IMO this is the composition of the two brackets in any step
Code: Select all
1st week: 16 in Winner's - 0 in Loser's
2nd week: 8 in Winner's - 8 in Loser's
3rd week: 4 in Winner's - 8 in Loser's
4th week: 2 in Winner's - 6 in Loser's
5th week: 4 in Loser's
6th week: 2 in Loser's
final 10days: 1st Winner vs 1st Loser
Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 6:02 am
by Weehawk
RAX wrote:About the rules of the final rounds: I think there is an error when you say that winner of Winner's Bracker waits a round to know who will be his opponent from Loser's bracket. He will wait two rounds.
IMO this is the composition of the two brackets in any step
Code: Select all
1st week: 16 in Winner's - 0 in Loser's
2nd week: 8 in Winner's - 8 in Loser's
3rd week: 4 in Winner's - 8 in Loser's
4th week: 2 in Winner's - 6 in Loser's
5th week: 4 in Loser's
6th week: 2 in Loser's
final 10days: 1st Winner vs 1st Loser
You are correct that a player winning through to the finals will have two weeks off prior to playing the survivor of the Loser's bracket, but they need not (and typically would not) be the two weeks before doing so.
More typically the number of
games each week of a double elimination tourney with 16 teams would look like this:
Code: Select all
1st week: 8 in Winner's - 0 in Loser's
2nd week: 4 in Winner's - 4 in Loser's
3rd week: 0 in Winner's - 4 in Loser's
4th week: 2 in Winner's - 2 in Loser's
5th week: 0 in Winner's - 2 in Loser's
6th week: 1 in Winner's - 1 in Loser's
And then the survivor's from each bracket would immediately face each other.
Again, note that I listed the number of
games each week, obviously each game involves two players. And the weeks the surviving players in the Winner's bracket lay idle
could be weeks 5 and 6, it's just not
necessary that they be.
Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:30 am
by BBH
I've actually made a severe misestimation or two on how long the tournament would take... I thought I'd ran it all through a sample scenario beforehand too.... :\
we might be making a couple of big changes in the head-to-head rounds to hopefully not make it take as long. I know it's bad to be making any changes in the rules now, but we really don't want to drag this out too long.
Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:17 am
by RAX
With the actual rules, the tournament would finish on November 21st 23:59 GMT
Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 10:37 am
by The TJT
You would get 3 weeks cut off if we'd play single elimination cup, dropping the double elimination system. Using single elimination for 16 players would make 4 games remaining after I, Robot. We should use cup system anyway, since we have determined seedings and all.
Cheers,
I, robot
Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:38 pm
by TRB_MetroidTeam
IMO the "head-to-head" would may start with 32 players.
And/or the "elimination" rounds would may eliminato 50% of the players.
It it too late to it, but it would save a couple of weeks.
IMO, if very long tournament, it will be less excitting. However if we play with single elimination in the next rounds, the "preview" of the games/styles chosen by the referees would be affected a bit.
Posted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:18 pm
by Weehawk
Weehawk wrote:
Code: Select all
1st week: 8 in Winner's - 0 in Loser's
2nd week: 4 in Winner's - 4 in Loser's
3rd week: 0 in Winner's - 4 in Loser's
4th week: 2 in Winner's - 2 in Loser's
5th week: 0 in Winner's - 2 in Loser's
6th week: 1 in Winner's - 1 in Loser's
And then the survivor's from each bracket would immediately face each other.
Just to point out there's an obvious mistake there. After the 6th Week there, the loser from the Winner's bracket needs to play a game in the Loser's bracket before the survivors of each bracket play each other. It should have read:
Code: Select all
1st week: 8 in Winner's - 0 in Loser's
2nd week: 4 in Winner's - 4 in Loser's
3rd week: 0 in Winner's - 4 in Loser's
4th week: 2 in Winner's - 2 in Loser's
5th week: 0 in Winner's - 2 in Loser's
6th week: 1 in Winner's - 1 in Loser's
7th week: 0 in Winner's - 1 in Loser's
And then the survivors of each bracket play each other. Someone winning out all the way through will have three weeks off, needing only to win five times.
BBH's grid with the week numbers that each round needs to occur superimposed in red:
http://img105.imageshack.us/img105/1782/bracketfx6.gif
There is obviously some flexibility in scheduling the third and fourth round of the Winner's bracket. Typically you would not play them until necessary, in order to give the week off to the players who have not lost yet. Otherwise they will merely be having to wait for their spot in the Loser's bracket after their first loss.
Doing that, if the higher seed wins every game it will look like this (player in
red is eliminated):
Week 1:
Winner's: 1 def 16, 8 def 9, 5 def 12, 4 def 13, 6 def 11, 7 def 10, 2 def 15
Loser's: none
Week 2:
Winner's: 1 def 8, 4 def 5, 3 def 6, 2 def 7
Loser's: 9 def
16, 12 def
13, 11 def
14, 10 def
15
Week 3:
Winner's: none
Loser's: 7 def
9, 6 def
12, 5 def
11, 8 def
10
Week 4:
Winner's: 1 def 4, 2 def 3
Loser's: 6 def
7, 5 def
8
Week 5:
Winner's: none
Loser's: 4 def
6, 3 def
5
Week 6:
Winner's: 1 def 2
Loser's: 3 def
4
Week 7:
Winner's: none
Loser's: 2 def
3
Week 8: (10 days)
1 def
2
Posted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 3:32 pm
by Nanni
So we will play play with double elimination rule?
My vote is for this formula (one extra chance for poor players like me
); even if, in this case, the tournament will be very long is interesting and it worth a try
